ebert's self-fulfilling prophecy

it's been a foregone conclusion for almost a month now that brokeback mountain will win best picture. however, ebert is still hard as ever for crash, and now is proselytizing on its behalf. he writes: "The likely winner of this year's best picture award is Crash ... Brokeback Mountain, another powerful film, was thought to be the Oscar leader, but I sense that its support has faded in recent weeks as voters take another look at Crash. [Crash] is more about ideas than lives, especially the idea that in a multicultural society, racism is more complex than we like to think." wow, gee, racism is 'complex.' putting my vehemence toward crash aside, how delusional is it to think that bm will lose.
ebert also is confident that amy adams will win best supporting actress. now, this category is often difficult to lock down, but i highly doubt the winner being anyone besides weisz or catherine keener. again, ebert's championing his darling, albeit this time the deserving adams.
i think this is the last i'll write about oscar until i cover ems' soiree. it's odd that ebert will go out on a limb for best picture and still choose ang lee for best director. lee often comes in under the radar, but he's made six films in the last 10 years, all in english, and three of them have been best-picture nominees. of course, peter jackson has had three, but that doesn't really count, does it (plus, admit it, you slept through the third installment—fuck all, i know i did)? spielberg has two nominations (no wins—no, munich will not win), as do ron howard (one win), clint eastwood (one win), martin scorsese (no wins), steven soderbergh (both in the same year, neither wins although he surprised presumed-winner lee by winning best director for traffic), lasse halstrom (zero) and frank darabont (zilch)—all hollywood heavyweights (sans darabont, who fucked himself with the majestic, and hallstrom, who is a good director that benefitted from weinstein's innovative oscar-campaigning). so, lee is due and, at least statistically, might be considered the best of very good company.